Apple’s (AAPL) State:

Friday, June 7, 2013

I conducted a linguistic analysis of Tim Cook’s statements (transcripts) at the last two Apple (APPL) quarterly earnings conferences. Let’s see what Mr. Cook says in the first paragraph in each of his opening statements:

Just a quick glance will tell us, even before he says anything more, that Q2 results/enthusiasm are far less impressive than Q1’s. And, my analysis of the transcripts reinforces that conclusion. Here are my findings:

So, what do I see based on Tim Cook’s responses to the analysts’ questions from 2013 F1Q and 2013F2Q?

There is a big difference in his responses from 2013 1Q to 2Q - with much more sensitivity and insecurity in his answers in 2Q. If he is insecure, how should investors feel? He appears to be unable to clearly define his thoughts and visions for the company. His weakening belief in China could be a serious issue. He, himself, has concern about Apple’s growth. On the other hand, Apple has a huge cash reserve, which can overcome a lot of issues.

Conclusion: I think Mr. Cook is overwhelmed and not the man for the job. Because of the large cash reserve, Apple will be OK short term. However, Apple suffers long term under his leadership.

Pastor Creflo Dollar’s Denial

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

In today’s CNN, we find the following headline and partial story:

Megachurch pastor Creflo Dollar on his daughter: 'She was not punched'

By Steve Almasy, CNN

Atlanta (CNN) – Telling thousands of parishioners that he should never have been arrested, Pastor Creflo Dollar said at his Sunday morning service he neither choked nor punched his 15-year-old daughter, as she claimed in a report to police.

Dollar, senior pastor of World Changers Church International in suburban Atlanta, told congregants in the sprawling megachurch and listening at one of more than a dozen satellite churches that when the facts of the case come out, they will be "appalled."
"The truth is, she was not choked. She was not punched," Dollar said.

So, let’s take a look at Mr. Dollar’s denial.

“The truth is, she was not choked. She was not punched.”

We can ask, .... “she was not choked” by whom? - “she was not punched,” by whom? He didn’t say he did not. When he could have. When he should have.

We always look for the simplest and most direct statement when we assess denials. We also look for commitment in the form of the pronoun “I.” He could have said, “I did not choke my daughter. I did not punch my daughter,” but he chose not to. When he could have. When he should have. “Alvin” wouldn’t allow him to.

Pastor Dollar’s denial is not a good one.  Get Mr. Koenig's Book Getting the Truth

Penn State

Saturday, November 12, 2011

I was assigned to the Oakland County Child Killer task force early in my career with the Michigan State Police (1976-1977). Quoting Wikipedia,

“The Oakland County Child Killer was an unidentified serial killer responsible for the murders of four or more children in Oakland County, Michigan, United States in 1976 and 1977. The killer was also nicknamed "The Babysitter", as all four victims had been recently bathed.”

This was the most heartbreaking, consuming, frustrating, and emotional case I ever worked. There was a predator out there on the streets, and he needed to be stopped.

Predator is a good word to describe the pedophile. Our work required us to educate ourselves on the pedophile. We needed to learn what made them tick, how they think, how they plan, how they conceal their urges, how they live, and maybe why they do what they do. Here is what I learned.

Pedophiles devote their lives to satisfy their sexual needs. They will spend years without satisfying their need to create an environment that will provide them with ready prey. They are cunning and patient. They will carefully position themselves to be in frequent, authoritative contact with young children (usually boys) and persistently work toward obtaining private time with the child. It is that moment they devote their lives to. They repeat that process as often as they can. The process is inexorable.

They have strategies to avoid detection and prosecution. They rationalize their actions and convince themselves they are doing, on balance, the right thing for the child. Their compulsion consumes them and eventually destroys them – but not before they destroy their victims. There is no cure.

The Penn State nightmare appears to be yet another situation where even the very well informed need to be educated about pedophilia. Like the serial killer, pedophiles can be discovered early, before they blossom into the cunning, elusive, and destructive force they will inevitably become. They make mistakes early and take chances they later won’t take. We need to know this and take quick, decisive action when those mistakes are brought to our attention.

Get Mr. Koenig's book Getting the Truth

Herman Cain’s Denial*

Monday, October 31, 2011

Today, Herman Cain responded to sexually related allegations:

"I have never sexually harassed anyone," Cain told Fox News on Monday. "I was falsely accused while I was at the National Restaurant Association and I say falsely because it turned out after the investigation to be baseless."

10/31/11 CNN: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/30/cain-campaign-responds-to-alleged-inappropriate-behavior/?hpt=hp_t1

Let’s take a look at his denial. The best denial is simple, direct, with as few words as possible, with those words having no wiggle room for interpretation.

The sentence, “I have never sexually harassed anyone,” is not direct, has too many words, and has words that have a lot of wiggle in them. A good denial also uses past tense verbs, like, “I did not….” – not passive words like “have.” Further, the term, “sexually harassed,” is of course a legal term and as such, has a great deal of wiggle room, literally, figuratively, and legally. Finally, the term, “anyone,” too has a lot of wiggle room in it. What does “anyone,” really mean? It is non-specific and is certainly not direct.

To beat a dead horse, he further stumbles when he states, “…and I say falsely because it turned out after the investigation to be baseless.” Now we know that it was false because it turned out the investigation found it so. “It turned out” is arbitrary and certainly not an absolute, lending further doubt to his denial. A good denial would state, “The investigation proved the allegation to be false.” Lastly, he says the allegation was false because after the investigation it turned out to be baseless – not because Mr. Cain knew it to false. And now it’s no longer false, it is baseless. Is baseless the same as false?

Bottom line: Not a good denial. This story has wings as we move along in this political season.

* This is not an attack on a political candidate. The sole intent of this analysis is to illustrate the power of LSA - nothing else.